Exploiting Crises versus Manufacturing Fear: A Comparative Study of the Use of Illiberal Political Frameworks in Times of Turmoil
Keywords:
Crisis Exploitation, Fear-Mongering, Illiberal Policy Frames, Time-Series Analysis, Multilevel ModelsAbstract
This study tests a spectral model for understanding the relationship between policy crises and the rise of illiberal discourse, distinguishing between "Crisis Exploitation" and "Fear-Mongering." A mixed-methods comparative design covered four countries (Austria, Germany, Hungary, USA) and two policy domains (migration and COVID-19). A total of 2,847 political texts were analyzed using a dedicated codebook and Large Language Models, with statistical analyses including cross-correlations, multilevel regression, and time-series analysis. Results showed that perceptual indicators (public anxiety) were the strongest predictor of illiberal discourse (β = 0.62, p < 0.001) compared to objective indicators (β = 0.18, p = 0.12). Time-lag analyses revealed a causal effect of discourse on anxiety with a one-month lead (r = 0.73 at Lag = 1), supporting the fear-mongering hypothesis, particularly in institutionally weak national contexts.
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